How long is too long? At what point do players, on hearing a manager’s motivational words, begin to shrug and think we’ve heard it all before? At what point does a manager, having worked out a successful way to play, have to accept that others have begun to suss him out and that he needs to make significant changes? At what point do players, used to playing with the same team-mates
in the same style, become stale? When, in football, does evolution become necessary?
It was the Hungarian coach Bela Guttmann, one of the game’s great wanderers, who popularised the
expression “the third year is fatal” – even though it was in his third season at Benfica that they produced probably their definitive performance under him, beating Real Madrid 5-2 in 1962 to retain the European Cup. But then again, despite Eusebio breaking into the team that season, Benfica failed to complete a hat-trick of league titles, finishing second behind Sporting. It may be that the
early symptoms of decline had begun to emerge even before Guttmann’s meeting with the Benfica board, at which they rejected his demand for a bonus for winning the European Cup, precipitating his departure and the “curse” that has seen Benfica lose in eight European Finals since.
Jose Mourinho, who is often compared to Guttmann although their backgrounds and footballing
philosophies could hardly be more different, has only once lasted more
than three years at a club, and that
was in his first spell at Chelsea when
he was deposed in the September of
his fourth season, by which time his
relationship with his squad and the
board had deteriorated.
It’s notable, too, that Pep Guardiola
struggled in his fourth season in
charge at Barcelona and is now finding
life difficult in his fourth campaign at
Manchester City.
Mauricio Pochettino, sacked by
Tottenham Hotspur in November in his
sixth season in charge, had begun to
fear entropy two years ago, begging
for significant investment to refresh the
squad. Perhaps for a club on the way
up – each season reaching new ground
as Spurs did, both literally in the
stadium move and metaphorically in
terms of their progress – decay can
be deferred, but what was striking this season was how weary Pochettino’s
players seemed, how much less focused
their pressing appeared.
In part, the issue is directly tactical
as teams get worked out. A prime
example is that of Ipswich Town, who
were promoted under Alf Ramsey in
1961. Their use of Jimmy Leadbitter as a
withdrawn left-winger foxed opponents,
who didn’t even have the advantage of
regular television coverage, and in their
first season up they won the league. The
following season they faced Tottenham
in the Charity Shield and Spurs, having
played them twice before, had worked
out a way of combating Leadbitter.
Ipswich lost 5-1 and were involved in a
relegation scrap when Ramsey was made
England manager the following March.
Plan...
Jetro
Willems of
Newcastle
scores
against
Man City
To suggest Manchester City have been
worked out is over-simplistic, but what
is true is that Guardiola’s brand of high-tempo possession football, based on positional mastery, does not terrify teams
as it once did. There’s no longer a sense
of shame for an opponent in having
only 25 per cent of the ball. Teams like
Norwich City, Wolverhampton Wanderers
and Newcastle United know that City can
be frustrated if you sit deep against them
and deny them space. And if you can do
that, City are vulnerable defensively. It’s
not easy, obviously, but sides now have
a basic plan and some sense of hope.
It is also a matter of personality.
Guardiola is ferociously intense; it is
part of what has made him so successful.
He drives himself exceptionally hard and
analyses opponents with ferocious rigour.
His game preparation is unimpeachable
and no manager is less likely to be taken
unawares. But that approach takes its
toll on the players.
At Bayern Munich there was a
collective sigh of relief when Guardiola
left as players felt they could breathe again. Perhaps Carlo Ancelotti, his
successor, was ultimately too laid back
but there was no doubt that the players
relished the more relaxed atmosphere
in his first few months in charge – just
as Ajax responded to the departure of
Rinus Michels and his iron fist in 1971 by
producing arguably their best football
under Ștefan Kovács.
There are other issues at City this
season. For example, the decision not to
replace Vincent Kompany was exposed
as a needless gamble by the injury to
Aymeric Laporte. While Fernandinho
has dropped back to operate as a central
defender, Rodri has struggled to replicate his team-mate’s consistent excellence
at the back of midfield.
While City have been a little unlucky
this season, Liverpool have been both
fortunate and relentless. The “expected
goals” charts show City comfortably at
the top of the table – that they are not
similarly placed in the Premier League
is not just a matter of luck but also of
something equally intangible: confidence,
form, ruthlessness. Call it what you will,
but City this season have so far, somehow,
lacked the edge of the past two seasons.
That judgement is hugely subject to
confirmation bias – they aren’t getting
the same results so something must be
wrong. Yet we also know that players tire
of being remorselessly drilled and we
know Guardiola, intense as he is, seems
to feel the pressure more at a club as
time goes by.
Regeneration, in terms of tactics,
approach and personnel, may be the
hardest thing in management.
